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Why aren't hurricane forecasts as good from the start

Why aren’t hurricane forecasts as good from the start

Nick Lilja Sunday, September 1, 2019 // 3:04 pm

Hurricane Dorian is in the process of re-shaping some of the islands of the Bahamas. The destruction it will cause is unimaginable. So why weren’t the forecasts a few days ago as good as the forecasts today? How are meteorologists so sure that Dorian will make the turn? And why are all the spaghetti models so close together today and… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Education, Tropics | Tagged Dorian, Hurricane Forecasting, NHC
8/31/19 9AM Hurricane Dorian update - NHC discussion and details

8/31/19 9AM Hurricane Dorian update – NHC discussion and details

Nick Lilja Saturday, August 31, 2019 // 7:50 am

Here is a quick look at Hurricane Dorian SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…25.8N 73.0W ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA ABOUT 280 MI…450 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH…19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…944 MB…27.88 INCHES FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2019 Altantic Hurricane Season, Dorian, Hurricane Dorian, NHC, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
8/30/19 1PM Hurricane Dorian update: NHC discussion, model data and extras

8/30/19 1PM Hurricane Dorian update: NHC discussion, model data and extras

Nick Lilja Friday, August 30, 2019 // 1:02 pm

Hey friends, I will attempt to be as thorough as possible as this may be my only post of the day, today. As of latest update at 1PM, Hurricane Dorian was a Category 3 Hurricane. A Major Hurricane SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST…1800 UTC…INFORMATION ———————————————- LOCATION…24.8N 70.3W ABOUT 445 MI…715 KM E OF THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ABOUT 625 MI…1005 KM… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Dorian, Florida Weather, FLWX, Hurricane Dorian, NHC, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
8/30/19 2AM update: Hurricane Dorian continues toward Florida

8/30/19 2AM update: Hurricane Dorian continues toward Florida

Nick Lilja Friday, August 30, 2019 // 1:33 am | 2 Responses

This is probably the best way to describe my relationship with Hurricane Dorian. The now-Category 2 Hurricane is drifting toward Florida. Gaining some strength. Gaining a little predictability. Total transparency here: For the first few days, this thing was about as unpredictable a storm as I’ve attempted to forecast during my five years in Hattiesburg. And that’s not to say… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Dorian, Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather

VIDEO: 8/29/19 Tropical Update – Latest on Hurricane Dorian

Nick Lilja Thursday, August 29, 2019 // 2:08 pm
Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season, Dorian, Hurricane Dorian, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
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