SUMMARY…STRONG SYNOPTIC FORCING AND STRONG MST FLUX THOUGH PROGRESSIVE NATURE MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING THREAT FOR TRAINING CONVECTION. DISCUSSION…GOES-E WV LOOP DENOTES A CONSOLIDATING SHORTWAVE FEATURE ALONG THE CENTRAL TX COAST LIFTING NORTHEAST WITH ENHANCED COOLING CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SPLIT BETWEEN THE EXITING 120 KT POLAR JET STREAK ACROSS THE CENTRAL AR AND THE FLATTENING 120 KT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK… Read more →
(NOTE: THIS POST WILL BE CONTINUALLY UPDATED FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH NEW DATA AS IT IS AVAILABLE) 12:33a CST UPDATE: Mesoscale Analysis details Latest model data shows a nose of Mixed-Layer CAPE values around 1000 J/Kg around 4am for the SE counties of MS and SW of Alabama 11:52 CST UPDATE: Mesoscale Analysis details The latest details from… Read more →
VALID 191456Z – 191811Z SUMMARY…ONGOING CONVECTION/CELL MERGERS WITHIN INCREASINGLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RAINFALL TOTALS OF TWO TO THREE INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS THROUGH 18Z…WITH SOME LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION…MID-MORNING RADAR MOSAIC SHOWED CONTINUED CONVECTION PRODUCING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL…CENTERED JUST EAST OF A BATON ROUGE TO JACKSON LINE. LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTING A WELL DEFINED… Read more →
As we look toward the weekend an area of low pressure, with a batch of cold air aloft will slide from New Mexico and west Texas across the southeast. It will open the door for showers and storms – some severe – to develop across Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and Tennessee. The Storm Prediction Center is keeping a… Read more →
The SPC is now also concerned about ice accumulations in Indiana and Ohio. From the SPC: SUMMARY…Areas of freezing rain are forecast to spread eastward across the area through the afternoon hours. DISCUSSION…The northern extent of a shield of precipitation crossing the OH Valley region — within an area of low/mid-level confluence — will continue spreading across sub-freezing wet-bulb temperatures… Read more →
