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Why tornado strength is tough to predict along the Gulf Coast

Why tornado strength is tough to predict along the Gulf Coast

Nick Lilja Tuesday, April 24, 2018 // 10:43 am

I received a great question from a viewer on facebook the other day about the forecast. The viewer asked if the Storm Prediction Center underestimated the severe weather threat on Sundday, given the multiple tornado warnings as well as the crazy video showing the tornado moving through Fort Walton Beach. The National Weather Service in Mobile rated this as an… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Climate, Southeast Weather | Tagged Florida Weather, fort walton beach tornado, Severe Weather, tornado video, Tornadoes, weather
An economists statistical rebuttal to seasonal hurricane forecasts

An economists statistical rebuttal to seasonal hurricane forecasts

Nick Lilja Monday, April 23, 2018 // 12:13 am

I received an email the other day from Ty Black, a former University of Southern Mississippi professor in Economics, regarding seasonal hurricane predictions. On the heels of the Colorado State seasonal prediction, national media outlets went running stories calling for an “above-average” year for hurricanes. This must’ve got Ty thinking. Page 4A of the Friday, April 6, 2018, edition of… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Education, Tropics | Tagged 2018 atlantic hurricane season, hurricane forecast, Hurricane Season, hurricanes, seasonal hurricane forecast, Severe Weather, weather

Storm Prediction Center: “strong tornado or two will be possible” for Gulf Coast region on Saturday

Nick Lilja Friday, April 13, 2018 // 1:33 pm

Latest update form the Storm Prediction Center… Showers and thunderstorms are expected to be ongoing at the start of Day 2 from portion of the Ozarks and lower Ohio Valley through the lower Mississippi Valley to TX Gulf Coast. In addition to the cold front being a focus for strong to severe storms this forecast period as it advances east,… Read more →

Posted in Archive | Tagged Alabama Weather, Flash Flooding, Flooding, hail, Louisiana Weather, Mississippi Weather, rain, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, weather, Wind
April 14 south Mississippi severe weather discussion

April 14 south Mississippi severe weather discussion

Nick Lilja Friday, April 13, 2018 // 7:44 am | 4 Responses

We are still watching for a line of severe storms to pass through the Pine Belt during the day on Saturday. We are about to get pretty detailed and pretty nerdy. You’ll get a full explanation here. But if all you want is the down-and-dirty forecast, take a look at the map below and swipe/scroll down to the last few… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged Flash Flooding, Flooding, hail, Mississippi Weather, rain, Severe Weather, SPC, Tornadoes, weather, Wind, WPC
April 13-14 severe weather breakdown for the Gulf Coast

April 13-14 severe weather breakdown for the Gulf Coast

Nick Lilja Thursday, April 12, 2018 // 11:31 am | 1 Response

The latest threat for severe weather across the United States looks to take place over two days. Day 1 will feature storms in East Texas, extreme eastern Oklahoma, northern Louisiana, most of Arkansas and southern Missouri. Day Two will put the threat for severe weather across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi Alabama, central Tennessee, and the Florida panhandle. This discussion will… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged Alabama Weather, Flash Flooding, Flooding, hail, Louisiana Weather, Mississippi Weather, rain, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, weather, Wind
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