Last Week: 11-4-1
Season: 25-25-2
Coming off of my worst performance since starting this column last season, I bounced back nicely with a 11-4-1 week two. I will look to move above .500 on the season with an interesting week three. Home teams in CAPITALS.
BENGALS (-3) over 49ERS
It’s the dreaded 1pm game for a West Coast team traveling across the country. The 49ers dropped a brutal game to the Cowboys last week and it will be tough to bounce back from that emotional letdown. Shockingly the Andy Dalton led Cincinnati Bengals are just two points away from being 2-0 on the season. I look for the Bengals to control the running game and come away with a home victory.
Patriots (+7.5) over BILLS
The Buffalo Bills are the feel good story of the NFL right now after starting the season 2-0. However Week 3 presents by far their toughest test yet. While wins over the Chiefs and Raiders are nice, a matchup against the Patriots is on a completely different level. Even though it is a road game for New England, I expect Tom Brady to have another strong passing game and the Patriots to cover the spread.
SAINTS (-4) over Texans
Drew Brees and the Saints passing attack should have a field day on Sunday against the Texans. Houston comes into their week three matchup allowing the most passing yards of any team in the NFL through two weeks. They’ll have to make some major adjustments if they want to have any success defensively against the high-powered Saints offense. Even with the emergence of RB Ben Tate in Arian Foster’s absence, I still think the Saints win by at least a touchdown on Sunday.
EAGLES (-9) over Giants
This line has been driving me crazy. On the one hand I fully expect the Eagles to win this game and win it comfortably. That being said, 9 points seems like a lot in a matchup of heated NFC East rivals. The Eagles and Giants always play close games and I could easily see this game finishing with a 24-17 final. However I ultimately decided that I think Michael Vick is going to come out on fire as he returns from a concussion and the Eagles are going to look to make a major statement against a team that has been talking a lot of trash over the past several months.
The Miami Dolphins need to win this game to salvage any hope for their 2011 season. Miami is staring at an 0-3 start after two tough losses to the New England Patriots and Houston Texans. Fortunately for the Dolphins, Cleveland does not pose nearly the same offensive attack as the Patriots or Texans. Miami should be able to move the ball on offense against the Browns defense and if they can score touchdowns instead of settling for field goals, I think they will pick up an important road victory.
TITANS (-7) over Broncos
Will this finally be the week that Chris Johnson breaks out of his funk and proves that he is one of the top running backs in the NFL? If Johnson is going to have a big week it will likely come against the Broncos porous rush defense. I like Tennessee more than most and think they will win this game by at least a touchdown.
Lions (-3) over VIKINGS
The Detroit Lions are road favorites as they look to start the 2011 season with a 3-0 record. This game is a great test for the young Lions. It is an early season must win for Adrian Peterson and the Vikings at home. If Matthew Stafford and the Lions are able to come out on top, things could turn ugly for new QB Donovan McNabb very quickly. The Christian Ponder era may come sooner than anyone expected.
PANTHERS (-3.5) over Jaguars
Cam Newton will look to become the first player in NFL history to throw for 400+ yards in 3 consecutive games in this battle of rookie quarterbacks. Newton has been sensational through the first two weeks and has brought new life to the Carolina franchise. However with all of the impressive numbers the University of Auburn product has produced, he has still yet to achieve the most important stat: a victory. Newton and the Panthers will win their first game of the season as Blaine Gabbert makes the first start of his career for the Jaguars.
CHARGERS (-14.5) over Chiefs
14.5 points is a lot to give up but it is impossible to pick the Kansas City Chiefs to win a game, let alone cover a spread right now. The Chiefs season seemed destined for disaster as the 2011 season began. Then they lost safety Eric Berry and running back Jamaal Charles for the season due to injuries. The Chargers return home after a loss in New England and even though they are notorious for poor September play, I expect them to win handily on Sunday.
Jets (-3) over RAIDERS
The Jets travel all of the way across the country to take on the Oakland Raiders in their first road game of the season. The Raiders are coming off of a tough loss in Buffalo last week in which they allowed the Bills to score five touchdowns on five 2nd half drives. This should be an ugly game in which the Jets pull away late.
Ravens (-5) over RAMS
The Ravens will look to bounce back in a big way following a disappointing week two loss to the Tennessee Titans. Baltimore had a surprising letdown following their week one victory against the defending AFC Champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Rams are coming off of a short week with an offense depleted due to injury. I expect the Ravens to have a strong defensive showing and Ray Rice to shine as Baltimore wins on the road by a touchdown.
BUCCANEERS (-1.5) over Falcons
This is a gut feeling. Personally I would stay away from this game because I believe the two teams are very evenly matched. But if I have to pick a team I am going to go with the Buccaneers. Although Atlanta is more proven on offense, their defense is a big question mark through two weeks of the season. I think Josh Freeman has a nice afternoon and the Bucs pull out a close home win.
Cardinals (-3.5) over SEAHAWKS
Kevin Kolb has performed well in each of the Cardinals first two games this season. The problem for Arizona in 2011 has been their defense. Fortunately for the Cardinals, week three provides the perfect remedy for a shaky defense: QB Tavaris Jackson. The Seahawks might be the worst team in the entire NFL. Even though they are at home this week, I simply can’t see Seattle pulling this game out. I would stay away from this matchup but if I had to pick I would go with Arizona.
Packers (-4) over BEARS
Sunday night football features a rematch of the 2010 NFC Championship game at Soldier Field. The Bears were exposed last Sunday in New Orleans. Their offensive line was overwhelmed in the 2nd half by the Saints pass rush and their defense simply couldn’t keep up with New Orleans’ speed. I anticipate a very similar game this week against the Packers. Aaron Rodgers has far too many options on offense and the Packers will look to bounce back from a subpar outing against the Panthers. I’m taking Green Bay to win on the road.
Steelers (-10.5) over COLTS
I’m sure ESPN wasn’t expecting this type of matchup when they picked this game for week three of Monday Night Football. The Colts are simply a mess without Peyton Manning. I’m not sure that one player means more to his team than Manning does to Indianapolis. Pittsburgh’s defense will overwhelm the Colts offense and the Steelers will win on the road by double digits.
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