San Diego is looking for a rebound after one of the more disappointing late season collapses sent them home early last year. On paper they look to be more improved top-to-bottom than their roster of a year ago, but there is still questions as to who will fill the run producing void left by Adrian Gonzalez. While I think this team is better than last year, and I have tremendous respect for Bud Black as a manager, the Padres will not be good enough to claim that division title that seem like such a certainty in 2010.
No. 10 San Diego Padres
Projected Rotation
- Matt Latos-RHP
- Clayton Richard-LHP
- Aaron Harang-RHP
- Tim Stauffer-RHP
- Dustin Moseley-RHP
Projected Bullpen
- Heath Bell-RHP
Mike Adams // mlb.com
- Mike Adams-RHP
- Luke Gregerson-RHP
- Ernesto Fieri-RHP
- Joe Thatcher-LHP
- Chad Qualls-RHP
- Randy Flores-LHP
Projected Lineup
- RF Will Venable
- SS Jason Bartlett
- 2B Orlando Hudson
- 1B Brad Hawpe
- LF Ryan Ludwick
- 3B Chase Headley
- CF Cameron Maybin
- C Nick Hundley
Analysis
The loss of Gonzalez will undoubtedly hurt the Padres, but they did make quite a few positive adjustments in the off-season to put themselves right in the thick of things in the NL West.
Bartlett and Hudson will balance the top of the order, but both will need to perform better than they did in 2010. Hudson has been playing good ball into his 30s but can’t seem to stay healthy enough to play a full year, and Bartlett enjoyed his worst year in Tampa last season.
Another big addition that will bolster the Padre bench was bringing in Jorge Cantu. Cantu had a brilliant first half of last season with the Marlins, before falling off the face of the earth for the entire second half of 2010. Cantu will not be asked to play everyday, which will be in his favor and he could enjoy a 20 homer, 75 RBI season despite playing in the pitcher friendly Petco Park.
Hawpe, Ludwick, and Hundley all have the potential for breakout seasons in 2011, and if just one of them can climb to their proverbial ceilings it could mean big things for Bud Black’s club.
The bullpen is the Padres strongest group, and no one in baseball is a better bullpen mind than Bud Black himself. It also helps he has the services of elite closer Heath Bell at his disposal. Bell was dominant for the Padres last year and by all accounts will enjoy another fantastic campaign in San Diego this season. If he can take the final step into the top tier of closers this year then the Padres will have the chance to prove me wrong and claim that division title that was so nearly theirs last season.
The biggest concern for the Padres will be their rotation. Three-fifths of last year’s rotation departed during free agency but San Diego is confident they have a championship rotation together. Latos was the most underrated pitcher in baseball last season, and rebound season from Harang appears definite considering he’s bringing his talents to the most pitcher friendly park in the game, after spending time in Cincinnati’s “pitcher’s worst nightmare” of a ballpark.
The pieces are there for San Diego but it’s all going to have to come together for the Padre’s to make a serious run at it in 2011.
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