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SPC increases severe risk for South Mississippi on Saturday

SPC increases severe risk for South Mississippi on Saturday

Nick Lilja Friday, January 18, 2019 // 12:16 am | 1 Response

The Storm Prediction Center has increased the risk for severe weather in South Mississippi on Saturday to a Slight Risk. That is a two on the one-to-five scale where five is the highest risk for severe weather. This is up from a Marginal Risk, issued earlier Thursday. Earlier Thursday, the 12z model data was used to calculate a Karrie Meter… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged Flooding, hail, Mississippi Weather, rain, Severe Weather, Tornadoes, weather, Wind
South Mississippi forecast not looking as cold, still as stormy

South Mississippi forecast not looking as cold, still as stormy

Nick Lilja Thursday, January 17, 2019 // 12:13 am

Before I get started, I want to say that I apologize for going “light” on the forecast details, on-air and online, during the last 48 hours. I’ve been fighting a nasty bug and was running a 101+ fever from Tuesday morning until, well, 15 minutes before writing this. My fever is back down to 99.1, and I’m hoping some NyQuil… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged Mississippi Weather, Severe Weather, weather, Winter Weather
This multi-layered South Mississippi forecast is why I'm balding

This multi-layered South Mississippi forecast is why I’m balding

Nick Lilja Monday, January 14, 2019 // 4:49 pm

A complex forecast will unfold as we head through this weekend and into and through next week. This forecast will likely change and have to be massaged through the next 72 hours before things really come into focus. Please keep tabs on the weather this week and through this weekend. I’m going to break this down by round with a… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged arctic weather, cold, Flooding, hail, Mississippi Weather, rain, Severe Weather, snow, Tornadoes, weather, Wind, Winter Weather
A DoubleShot on Ice: The truth about the late January cold for the South

A DoubleShot on Ice: The truth about the late January cold for the South

Nick Lilja Sunday, January 13, 2019 // 7:14 pm | 1 Response

Before you get bombarded with the cries of Snowmageddon, Arctic BLAST-O-RAMA, or the SOOPER DOOPER POLAR VORTEX OF COLDER-THAN-MARS TEMPERATURES, please allow me to clear up some confusion, calm the hype and give everyone the straightforward ‘what we actually know at this point’ batch of information. The polar vortex has fallen apart, which could unleash a much colder end to… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Southeast Weather | Tagged Alabama Weather, cold weather, European Ensemble, Georgia Weather, Louisiana Weather, Mississippi Weather, Severe Weather, snow, Snow in the south, Southeast Snow, weather, weather forecast, Winter Weather

2019 AMS conference is over – some parting thoughts

Nick Lilja Saturday, January 12, 2019 // 9:08 am

via GIPHY

I know what you’re thinking…

“That’s rude, Nick. And pretty short-sighted. There were plenty of quality presentations and networking opportunities at AMS 2019.”

You’re not wrong. The American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting was – and always is – full of great presentations, new and fascinating research, networking opportunities, and a chance to meet up with colleagues that we all rarely get to chat with in person.

But it wasn’t the same without the National Weather Service employees.

Hole-y moly

The lack of NWS employees wasn’t the only void. In fact, there were only a limited number of people there that had any kind of – even loose – connection to the government.

The lack of government scientists left a hole in the conference. No scientists, no research. No research, no presentations. No presentations, no discussions. No discussions, no new solutions to potential problems facing the meteorological community.

via GIPHY

About 3,800 people came to the conference this year. Only down from about 4,200 last year. But, that may not count people who registered – perhaps even paid – and were forced to stay at home due to the government shutdown.

The 2019 AMS conference was like buying shoes, but not getting any laces. And, sure, the shoes work. But the laces are a big part of what makes the shoes effective. And until the laces in the shoes are gone, maybe you never think about that. But once the laces are gone, it is painfully obvious.

Most obvious when it came time to scroll through the presentations and posters. Last year? Almost 2,100 presentations were given and nearly 1,300 posters were displayed.

This year’s numbers are still being tallied. But I do know that I’ve never seen as many “Withdrawn” or “cancelled” talks in my short history of attending.

Then there is a different kind of problem, too. The financial side of it.

Yes, attendees who cancelled will not get back $75 from their registration fee (AMS has conference bills to pay), they won’t be refunded their $95 abstract fee (presentation fee), and they will pay any costs associated with cancelling their flights/transportation, and hotels…

— Dianna M. Francisco (@WxDianna) January 9, 2019

Though, that discussion is for another day. And probably a point that could be better made by Dr. Marshall Shepherd.

It wasn’t all bad

Like I said, AMS will always be a great place to network with other professions and learn about some of the latest research in the field. This year was no different.

There were still many presentations and hundreds of posters to see. So many, that it is impossible to see them all.

Here were some impactful ones for me….

— There were a handful of presentations centered around tornado risks and risk assessment for those in mobile and manufactured homes. Fascinating stuff that highlights why mobile and manufactured homes in the southeast are in more danger than in other parts of the country. And how there may be ways to mitigate that threat. More to come on this one….

— There was an interesting presentation on twitter usage during hurricanes and how people engage with sources of authority during an emergency weather situations. People are seeking a two-way dialogue and sources of weather information are still primarily a one-way “broadcast” of information.

— Some new research suggests that for multi-day / multi-duration severe weather outbreaks that the severe weather may – in fact – be stoking the atmosphere to create more severe weather. So if there are storms on Day 1, those may be perturbing the atmosphere is a way that promotes the development of severe weather on Day 2. More to come from this, too…

— Protecting people from lightning is difficult given that most people are struck at a time when the lightning is actually least likely – before or after the main part of the thunderstorm moves through. Identifying lightning and where it forms can be the key to forecasting a threat for people downstream.

The bottom line

The conference was a bit underwhelming this year given the missing presentations and the lack of input from government scientists.

Meeting a few Hurricane Hunters was awesome. Chatting with great meteorologists like Manda Chasteen, Taylor Trogden, Kim Wood, Matt Lanza, Dakota Smith, and Chad Gravelle was great. And learning from fellow scientists is always a win in my book.

It just didn’t feel like as much winning as usual since I couldn’t share it with a big part of the meteorological community. ∞

Aside published on Saturday, January 12, 2019 // 9:08 am | Permalink
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