Buckle up Amarillo, a return of the 90s this week. Perhaps a few chances for rain, too.
I’ll get a full write-up published by this afternoon…
This afternoon is looking interesting, but not impressive, if you are a storm chaser. As an area of low pressure pushes into the four corners region it will help offer some lift our ahead of it. That means the chance for showers and storms in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.
The question will be how developed can these storms become. And how fast.
For places east of a line from Garden City, Kansas south to Turpin, Oklahoma and continuing to Paducah, Texas there is a chance for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms. Some of these storms could become severe.
The main threats for today are large hail and damaging winds. In fact hail stones in excess of two-inches (think egg-sized) could be seen across parts of western Oklahoma.
But that’s not all, we also have to worry about a tornado threat this afternoon. While the SPC has issued a 5-percent tornado risk, I feel like that might be edged back to just a 2-percent as we head toward the afternoon.
But even at 2-percent, I think a tornado will be seen somewhere today.
Every storm chaser in the Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas area is rejoicing today!
This is what I look like while waiting for computer weather models to finish rendering…
There are a few showers and some thunderstorms moving through the western tier of counties across the Texas panhandle this afternoon.
The area is lacking in low level moisture which means that light to moderate rain will be the most anyone will be able to squeeze out of the clouds. In fact, most places will end up getting nothing but virga (rain that evaporate before it hits the ground).
The main threats with any of these “storms” will be some rain, thunder and gusty to damaging winds.
Most will be moving at about 25 to 35mph from west to east.
Per the NWS:
Isolated gusty winds to 60 mph will be possible in mainly the western 3 tiers of panhandle counties late this afternoon. A broken line of showers and storms just moving into the panhandles from nm will encounter roughly 300-500 j/kg mlcape and 600-800 j/kg dcape and a modestly dry low lvl airmass. The main wind threat should end by around 8 pm.
