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9/16/20 Early AM update: Sally close to landfall geographically, but not temporally, NHC increases intensity

9/16/20 Early AM update: Sally close to landfall geographically, but not temporally, NHC increases intensity

Nick Lilja Wednesday, September 16, 2020 // 1:05 am

Hurricane Sally continues to defy all odds and rapidly intensify under the most unlikely of situations. The storm did finally reduce the dry air entrainment, but it is sitting over not-as-warm-as-earlier waters that are also more shallow, and can be cooled easier by rain and wind. And it is doing so in an atmospheric environment with more shear now than… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season, Hurricane Sally, Sally, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
9/15/20 Late AM Sally update: weak flow, dry air, some shear, cooler water, Cat 1

9/15/20 Late AM Sally update: weak flow, dry air, some shear, cooler water, Cat 1

Nick Lilja Tuesday, September 15, 2020 // 10:42 am

It looks like the westward progression of Hurricane Sally may be coming to an end. The latest water vapor imagery from the College of DuPage shows some modest flow in the mid-levels that is – very lightly – pushing Sally from the west. That will help to slow Sally to a crawl and eventually turn the storm to the north… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season, Hurricane Sally, NHC, Sally, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
9/15/20 Early AM NHC Sally update: Slight weakening, reorganization attempt

9/15/20 Early AM NHC Sally update: Slight weakening, reorganization attempt

Nick Lilja Tuesday, September 15, 2020 // 1:15 am | 3 Responses

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT LOCATION…28.8N 88.0W ABOUT 75 MI…120 KM ESE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER ABOUT 115 MI…190 KM SSE OF BILOXI MISSISSIPPI MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…90 MPH…150 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT…W OR 270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…986 MB…29.12 INCHES WIND SPEED … EXTENT FROM CENTER 64 KT……. 40NE 20SE 0SW 15NW. 50 KT………. Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season, Hurricane Sally, NHC, Sally, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
9/14/20 Late AM Hurricane Sally Gulf Coast breakdown

9/14/20 Late AM Hurricane Sally Gulf Coast breakdown

Nick Lilja Monday, September 14, 2020 // 11:47 am | 1 Response

The late morning advisory came down from the National Hurricane Center and the Hurricane Hunters noted a shift in the position as the center tries to re-form. This may eventually mean some dramatic implications for people in Alabama and Florida. A reforming center to the east would slow forward momentum a bit and allow the system to – perhaps –… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season, Gulf Coast Weather, Hurricane Sally, NHC, Sally, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
9/14/20 AM Tropical Storm Sally NHC update: Still on track to make landfall sometime Tuesday

9/14/20 AM Tropical Storm Sally NHC update: Still on track to make landfall sometime Tuesday

Nick Lilja Monday, September 14, 2020 // 8:30 am

For all of the shifts of the cone back and forth, the timing for landfall for Sally is still on track. Tuesday. At some point. This is turning into quite the difficult system to forecast due to the very subtle forces acting upon it. The timeline for slowing and turning that will occur during the day today and into tomorrow… Read more →

Posted in Archive, Forecasting, Tropics | Tagged 2020 Atlantic hurricane Season, Hurricane Sally, NHC, Sally, Tropical Storm Sally, Tropical Weather, tropics, weather
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