This is from the last time I got a chance to storm chase in Green Bay, Wisconsin. As you can see, I didn’t need to go far (my garage) to catch the winds! Later that afternoon/evening one storm rolled through and dropped a funnel just after sundown. Luckily it was on a storm moving over Lake Michigan and no one was injured.
But look at these winds!
Earlier today it looked like Parts of Texas, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Kentucky would be battling isolated severe thunderstorms. Recently, the higher resolution computer weather models have leaned toward a far more isolated event. Current conditions show that colder air continues to erode away in the lower levels of the atmosphere. This will inhibit the production of severe storms in… Read more →
There are a few showers and some thunderstorms moving through the western tier of counties across the Texas panhandle this afternoon.
The area is lacking in low level moisture which means that light to moderate rain will be the most anyone will be able to squeeze out of the clouds. In fact, most places will end up getting nothing but virga (rain that evaporate before it hits the ground).
The main threats with any of these “storms” will be some rain, thunder and gusty to damaging winds.
Most will be moving at about 25 to 35mph from west to east.
Per the NWS:
Isolated gusty winds to 60 mph will be possible in mainly the western 3 tiers of panhandle counties late this afternoon. A broken line of showers and storms just moving into the panhandles from nm will encounter roughly 300-500 j/kg mlcape and 600-800 j/kg dcape and a modestly dry low lvl airmass. The main wind threat should end by around 8 pm.
Two videos today! This is two sides of the same storm. One video is longer than the other. The first does have some audio (and some cursing) while the second one is mainly natural background sounds.
Latest 18z NAM computer weather model, which is our shorter medium range model, is now bringing in a chance for rain to the panhandles Sunday afternoon / night.
Not bad! And that’s not all! The latest Euro computer weather model is also on board with the NAM.
Now, in saying that, there’s not much rain out there. The total amount of rainfall that any one point will realize should stay below one-tenth of an inch of rain. Sadly, because we lack the available low-level moisture, rain won’t make it all the way to the ground in some spots. So virga will be the name of the game for you folks.
At the end of the day, the rain chances vary between 10- and 30-percent Sunday night. It’s looking like the best bet for rain will be west of a north-south line from Goodwell, Ok to Umbarger, Tx.
In the areas that do have the available low-level moisture, the right ingredients (CAPE Values over 100 J/kg & Bulk Shear above 20kts) are present for a few claps of thunder.
