Cincinnati had a breakout season last year capturing the NL Central Division title. Then they came stumbling back down to earth and were swept right out of the playoffs by the mighty Phillies. Don’t get me wrong the Reds are a good team but they never played well against any top tier teams in 2010 and I don’t think they will in 2011. Chalk up about 85 wins for the Reds, which unfortunately puts them in second place.
No. 12 Cincinnati Reds
Projected Rotation
- Edinson Volquez-RHP
- Bronson Arroyo-RHP
- Johnny Cueto-RHP
- Homer Bailey-RHP
- Travis Wood-LHP
Projected Bullpen
- Francisco Cordero-RHP
Joey Votto // mlb.com
- Aroldis Chapman-LHP
- Nick Massett-RHP
- Jose Arredondo-RHP
- Bill Bray-LHP
- Logan Ondrusek-RHP
- Jordan Smith-RHP
Projected Lineup
- 2B Brandon Phillips
- CF Drew Stubbs
- 1B Joey Votto
- 3B Scott Rolen
- RF Jay Bruce
- LF Jonny Gomes
- C Ramon Hernandez
- SS Paul Janish
Analysis
With reigning MVP Joey Votto at the helm, surrounded by Brandon Phillips and Jay Bruce the Reds will be more than relevant in the NL Central again. However, I don’t see a division championship in the cards, which lands Cinci at #12.
After their big three there isn’t much in terms of championship hitting. The Reds signed Edgar Renteria so if they make it to the World Series they have their man, but they won’t make it to the World Series. Scott Rolen isn’t getting any young and the rest of the lineup isn’t anything to write home about.
Additionally Joey Votto isn’t going to sneak up on anybody this year. He is a fantastic player and will turn in another great season but don’t look for him in the MVP race again in 2011.
An even bigger concern for me is the strength of the Reds pitching staff. It looks good on paper and is more than capable of putting them in the division race again, but their arms collapsed down the stretch and were the main reason the Reds couldn’t get a win in the post season.
Aroldis Chapman is one of the most exciting young pitchers in the game so no matter when he’s pitching, whether it’s as a starter or a reliever he’ll be a game breaker. Volquez seems to have recovered nicely from Tommy John surgery and is in store for a nice season in 2011, and Bronson Arroyo is as durable as they come. However, I’m not convinced they have the crafty veteran leadership to win in September and will lose a close race to the Cardinals for the NL Central crown.
The bullpen’s combined ERA was 3.97 last season before the team called up Chapman and the pen doesn’t look too different from last season. Chapman will sling fireballs past plenty of batters, but aside from him this unit provides no reason to believe that it won’t struggle again.
I like the Reds, they certainly are an organization on the rise, but I like the Cardinals more and St. Louis will be the team that earns the right to get their ass kicked by Philly in October, not the Reds.
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