Last Week: 6-10
Season: 33-29-1
OUCH. Last week was a rough one for my picks column. Maybe I should give it up… but with just three weeks remaining in the regular season, I hang in there until the end. Six rookie quarterbacks (Sam Bradford, Colt McCoy, Jimmy Clausen, Tim Tebow, John Skeleton, and Joe Webb) will start this weekend as we head into crunch time of the NFL season. With divisions and playoff berths up for grabs, it should be a very interesting weekend of football. Home teams in CAPITALS.
CHARGERS (-10) over 49ers
San Diego is the better team and in need of a victory as they hope to stay alive in the AFC West. As long as Alex Smith is the starting quarterback for San Francisco, there is no way I would pick them on a short week on the road against a Norv Turner team in December. Chargers all the way in this one.
Chiefs (+3) over RAMS
Very close matchup that will rely heavily on whether or not QB Matt Cassell is able to start for Kansas City just over a week after having an appendectomy. Both teams are fighting for their respective division leads. Though the game is in St. Louis, if Cassell starts Kansas City is the better team. If Cassell can’t go, Brodie Croyle and his lifetime 0-10 record will start for Kansas City. In that case, Rams all of the way.
Texans (+1) over TITANS
Tennessee has completely quit on head coach Jeff Fisher. In what could be the final home game of his coaching tenure in Tennessee, you would hope the team would step up for their coach. I just don’t see it. The Titans have lost 6 in a row and seem like a team dead to rights. In the highly anticipated Andre Johnson vs. Cortland Finnegan Round II, I expect Johnson’s play on the field to do the talking and Houston to win.
Can I really pick against Reggie Wayne and the Colts at home?
COLTS (-4.5) over Jaguars
This feels like the wrong pick so proceed with caution. An absolutely huge AFC South showdown between Indianapolis and Jacksonville for control of the division. It’s tough to justify picking against Peyton Manning at home in a critical divisional matchup. However Jacksonville will come up with that backs against the wall set on proving they belong at the top of the division. It should be a great back and forth matchup but I’ll roll with the experience of Peyton Manning and the Colts.
PANTHERS (-2.5) over Cardinals
It’s the toilet bowl! And yes… I’m picking the 1-win Carolina Panthers. Two rookie quarterbacks will go at it in this matchup as Jimmy Clausen faces off against John Skeleton. I was completely indifferent on this matchup until Bill Simmons of ESPN brought up a great point on Friday. In the “Andrew Luck Bowl” could Panthers quarterback Jimmy Clausen have any more to play for? Win and he might keep his job long term. Lose and the Panthers will get the number one pick in the draft and almost assuredly take Luck. Carolina all of the way in this matchup.
Browns (Pick Em) over BENGALS
One team has taken great strides in 2010. The other has been a colossal disappointment. Eric Mangini, Mike Holmgren, and staff deserve a tremendous amount of credit for beginning the turnaround of the Cleveland Browns franchise. The team plays hard week in and week out and is clearly heading in the right direction. Rookie QB Colt McCoy will make the start for Cleveland on Sunday afternoon. On the other side, Carson Palmer and the Bengals are just looking to end a miserable year. Cleveland will win this game on the road.
Bills (+5) over DOLPHINS
Speaking of teams that are heading in the right direction, how about the Buffalo Bills? Head coach Chan Gailey has his team playing much better football from the start of the season. Miami is coming off of a major road win against the New York Jets and could be susceptible to a letdown performance. As long as Chad Henne is the starting QB for the Miami Dolphins, I will continue to be reluctant to roll with Miami. Take Buffalo and the points.
Eagles (+3) over GIANTS
The NFC East title is on the line as the 9-4 New York Giants host the 9-4 Philadelphia Eagles. It seems everyone in the national media is taking the Giants this week but there is one thing that I keep thinking about. The Eagles are the better football team. Philadelphia won the first matchup between these teams by a final score of 27-17 in a game that shouldn’t have been that close. First down will be the key in this matchup as the Giants are the best first down team in the NFL averaging 6.62 yards per play and the Eagles allow just 3.5 yards on average on first down. New York will look to come out and establish their running game and get to Michael Vick early and often. If CB Asante Samuel and OT Winston Justice both play for the Eagles I expect Philadelphia to win outright on the road and take control of the NFC East.
COWBOYS (-8) over Redskins
Rex Grossman… really? REX GROSSMAN?!? As somebody who felt the Eagles waited two years too long to trade Donovan McNabb, I can easily admit that this is the wrong decision by the Shanahan family. Rex Grossman is not going to win games or outperform a poorly performing Donovan McNabb on Sunday. The Redskins locker room is reportedly divided over the McNabb benching and I would not be surprised to see a majority of the team quit on their coach. Jason Garrett has done a nice job since taking over the Cowboys and should pick up his 4th career win as a head coach on Sunday in convincing fashion.
BUCCANEERS (-4.5) over Lions
Tampa Bay is absolutely decimated by injuries as they try to keep their slipping playoff hopes alive. If the Bucs weren’t going up against 3rd string QB Drew Stanton and the Detroit Lions, I would likely pick against them as I’m not sure they will be able to overcome their plethora of injuries. However the last time the Lions won a road game was October 28, 2007 when they defeated the Chicago Bears in Chicago by a final score of 16-7. They won’t pick up a road win on Sunday as Josh Freeman will find a way to will Tampa Bay to victory.
Will Reggie Bush and the Saints be able to go into Baltimore and pull out a victory?
Saints (+2) over RAVENS
A funny thing happened during the 2010 season that no one is talking about. The defending champion New Orleans Saints regained their Super Bowl form. RB Chris Ivory will miss the game for New Orleans with a hamstring injury but the Saints still have plenty of fire power on offense. Normally I would pick defense over offense, but I do not trust the Ravens at this point in the season for some reason. Cautiously take the points and the champs on the road.
Falcons (-6) over SEAHAWKS
Atlanta is the best team in the NFC right now. Seattle is the definition of jeykll and hyde. Even though the Falcons are traveling across the country to the Pacific Northwest, I like Matt Ryan, Roddy White, and Michael Turner in this matchup. In Seattle’s seven losses this season, the closest they have kept a game is 17 points. If they lose on Sunday, it won’t be close.
Jets (+4) over STEELERS
It’s a HUGE game for the New York Jets. Coming off two straight embarrassing losses against the New England Patriots in Foxboro and at home last week against the Miami Dolphins, the Jets need to bounce back if they want to prove they belong in the discussion of elite teams in the AFC. S Troy Polamalu will miss the game for Pittsburgh. Mark Sanchez and the Jets need a statement victory and they are running out of time. Will it happen on Sunday afternoon?
RAIDERS (-8) over Broncos
Tim Tebow will make his first career NFL start on Sunday in Oakland against the Raiders. Oakland is coming off of a heartbreaking loss on the road at Jacksonville last week that pretty much crushed their playoff hopes. They will be looking to take out some of their frustration this weekend against Tebow and the Broncos.
PATRIOTS (-14) over Packers
They can’t make this line high enough. 2nd year QB Matt Flynn will start in place of the injured Aaron Rodgers on Sunday night as the Packers look to keep their playoff hopes alive. Bill Belichick and the Patriots defense must be licking his chops. Tom Brady will continue his outstanding play and the Patriots will absolutely blow out the Packers on Sunday night football.
Bears (-6) over VIKINGS
3rd string rookie QB Joe Webb will make the first start of his NFL career after Tavaris Jackson (turf toe) was placed on Injured Reserve and Brett Favre was ruled out for the second straight week due to a shoulder injury. Webb is a converted wide receiver. Brian Urlacher and the rest of the Bears defense can’t wait. Even if Jay Cutley has a bad game in the frigid weather conditions outdoors at the University of Minnesota, I still expect Chicago to win by at least a touchdown.
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