Week 13 NFL Picks

Last Week: 8-8

Season: 19-12

The good news? I went 13-3 last week choosing who would win each game. The bad news? There’s a reason betting lines exist. I’ll look to rebound from a mediocre week as the NFL season heads into December and the playoff push begins. Home teams in capitals.

EAGLES (-8.5) over Texans
The 7-4 Eagles are coming off of a frustrating loss at Chicago on Sunday. Fortunately for Philadelphia, they don’t have much time to reflect on that performance as they get right back out on the field to take on the Texans and conclude their 4 games in 17 days stretch. Houston has the 32nd ranked passing defense in the NFL and Michael Vick, Desean Jackson, and the rest of the Eagles offense should have a big day. CB Asante Samuel will miss his second straight game with a sprained knee which could keep the game much closer. However, Philly needs the win and I’m expecting a big effort on Thursday night football.

VIKINGS (-5) over Bills
Chan Gailey has the Bills playing much better football over the last 3 weeks as Buffalo will head into Minnesota coming off of a tough overtime loss in Pittsburgh. Leslie Frazier got his first NFL victory last Sunday in Washington and will make his Vikings home coaching debut this week. Minnesota has injury issues as RB Adrian Peterson continues to recover from an ankle sprain and QB Brett Favre deals with several issues. While Buffalo has played well over the last month, I believe the Vikings will come out ahead by at least a TD on Sunday.

DOLPHINS (-5.5) over Browns
WR Brandon Marshall will return to the lineup for the 6-5 Dolphins as Miami looks to keep their playoff hopes alive. The Dolphins must win this game. Cleveland has been playing very good football over the past month. Even though they are 4-7 on the season, they have lost 5 games by 7 points or less and have impressive victories over the Patriots and the Saints on their resume. But with QB Jake Delhomme starting in place of the injured Colt McCoy, it will be too much for Cleveland to overcome. Chad Henne will look to build off of his best start of the season last week in a 33-17 victory over the Raiders as Miami will live to play another week.

TITANS (-3) over Jaguars
QB Kerry Collins will start for Tennessee this week marking a major upgrade from Rusty Smith and the team that got shutout by the Texans last week. Both the 5-6 Titans and 6-5 Jaguars are right in the division hunt in the AFC South and this marks a big matchup for both squads. The Jaguars are 1-4 in their last five meetings with the Titans against the spread and 1-4 in their last five trips to Tennessee. I expect that trend to continue in a close matchup in which Randy Moss has his first big day as a Titan and Tennessee picks up the close home victory.

CHIEFS (-8) over Broncos
One word: revenge. The last time these two teams met, the 3-8 Broncos absolutely embarrassed the AFC West leading Chiefs beating them by a final score of 49-29. Kansas City head coach Todd Haley refused to shake hands with Broncos coach Josh McDaniels after the game and there is clearly bad bloop between these teams. Jamaal Charles and Dwayne Bowe are on fire right now and the Arrowhead crowd should be electric for this matchup. I expect the Chiefs to get up early and Haley to try and run up the score as Kansas City moves to 8-4 on the season.

Redskins (+7) over GIANTS
Donovan McNabb has notoriously played well against New York throughout his career and games between these two NFC East foes normally come down to the wire. Both teams have major injury issues as the Giants have no depth at WR with Steve Smith and Hakeem Nicks out and a depleted offensive line that will be without C Shaun O’Hara and LT Shawn Andrews. Washington is struggling in the secondary with both Laron Landry and Carlos Rogers out and the Redskins are down to 3rd string RB Keiland Williams for their run game. While the Giants are clearly the better team and will likely win the game, I have a feeling that Washington will keep this game close.

Bears (-5) over LIONS
Chicago is coming off of a big home win against Philadelphia and will travel to Detroit to take on the last place Lions. I would normally look at this as a trap game, but with both QB Matthew Stafford and QB Shaun Hill out due to injury, Detroit is down to their 3rd string option: Drew Stanton. I expect the Bears defense to get after Stanton and force several turnovers as Chicago rolls to another victory and moves to 9-3 on the season.

PACKERS (-9) over 49ers
San Francisco is coming off of a big road win against a divisional opponent on Monday Night Football and will now travel across the country to take on the Packers. A short week for a west coast team traveling to Lambeau Field for a 1:05pm EST game is a recipe for disaster. RB Frank Gore is out of the season with a hip injury and it will be interesting to see how RB Brian Westbrook responds to extended action for a second straight week. Green Bay is coming off of a disappointing loss in Atlanta last week and Aaron Rodgers and the Packers will look to bounce back in a big way as they stay right in the hunt of the playoff picture in the NFC.

Saints (-7) over BENGALS
The last time New Orleans defeated Cincinnati was back in 1993 by a final score of 20-13. However this matchup is different as the 8-3 defending Super Bowl champions look to continue their hot stretch against the incredibly disappointing 2-9 Bengals. Cincinnati’s secondary is depleted and New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams should have a field day game planning against QB Carson Palmer. The Saints are in the middle of a 4-game stretch in which they should go 4-0. That stretch will reach 2-0 after Sunday’s contest.

Raiders (+13) over CHARGERS
Norv Turner has never lost a game in December as the head coach of the San Diego Chargers. The Chargers are 4-1 at home this season and the Raiders are 1-4 on the road. Jason Campbell will start for Oakland as QB Bruce Gradkowski was placed on injured reserve after suffering a shoulder injury last week. All signs point to a big Chargers victory this week and while I believe San Diego will win the game, I don’t think it will be a complete blowout.

Falcons (-3) over BUCCANEERS
Are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers for real? While Tampa Bay is 7-4 on the season and has made huge strides behind QB Josh Freeman and head coach Raheem Morris, the Bucs are 0-4 against teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, Atlanta is playing the best football of anyone in the NFL and hasn’t turned the ball over in a month. If the Bucs want to prove they belong with the big boys, they need to get this win at home. I just feel Tampa isn’t quite ready for the big stage as Matt Ryan and the Falcons will move to 10-2 on the season after a hard fought victory.

SEAHAWKS (-4.5) over Panthers
The 5-6 Seahawks are sadly still in the thick of things in the pathetic NFC West race. Seattle needs to beat up on the lowly Panthers if they want to prove they deserve to win their division. The Panthers are winless on the road this season and 8 of their 11 losses have come back 10 points or more. This matchup does not feature much to get excited about but the bottom line is Seattle needs to win as they chase a division title.

COLTS (-5.5) over Cowboys
Peyton Manning and the Colts are coming off of a disappointing loss at home last week to the San Diego Chargers. Indianapolis will look to rebound this week against the Dallas Cowboys. While Dallas has played much better football in 3 games under interim head coach Jason Garrett, they are still in the midst of an incredibly disappointing season and will not go toe-to-toe with the Colts. The Colts have lost 3 of their last 4 games and Peyton Manning has thrown 9 interceptions over that stretch. I look for Indianapolis to break out of their funk and win big at home on Sunday afternoon.

Rams (-3.5) over CARDINALS
This just in. The Saint Louis Rams are a top the NFC West. Rookie Sam Bradford and company will head into Arizona for a big divisional matchup as the Rams try to remain in first place. Arizona is absolutely awful and QB Derek Anderson continues to prove he is not a starting caliber QB at the NFL level. Good teams avoid this trap game and pull out a victory. The Rams aren’t a good team quite yet but are they the best of a bad bunch? A road win on Sunday would go a long way to proving their worth at the top of their division.

Steelers (+3) over RAVENS
Smash mouth football at its best. The number one question in this matchup is the health of Ben Roethlisburger. Will he be able to hold up playing on a broken foot? John Harbaugh and Joe Flacco have never beaten the Steelers with Roethlisburger at QB. This is a huge matchup as the winner of this game will take control atop the division. While Baltimore plays well at home and is the healthier of the two teams, I’m going to take my chances with Roethlisburger’s health and predict the road upset.

PATRIOTS (-3.5) over Jets
A huge Monday Night Football matchup between division rivals that clearly don’t like each other. This should be a great game as the winner will take control of the AFC East and likely end up as the #1 seed in the AFC. The Jets are a perfect 5-0 on the road this season and the Patriots are 5-0 in Foxboro. Both of these teams are playing great football and it could very well come down to the final possession. But at this point if I have to chose between the experienced Tom Brady at home or a young Mark Sanchez on the road, give me Brady and the Pats.