NFL Week 8 Picks

Last Week: 8-4-1

Season: 51-45-7

The NFL rounds out the month of October with a strong week of matchups highlighted by Tom Brady and the New England Patriots traveling to Pittsburgh to take on the Steelers, and the Eagles and Cowboys matching up in a critical NFC East showdown on Sunday Night Football. As always, home teams are in CAPITALS:

Saints (-12.5) over RAMS
New Orleans is coming off of an impressive offensive explosion beating the Colts on Sunday Night Football by a final score of 62(!)-7. The Saints offense should have another field day this weekend against the disappointing Rams. Even though RB Mark Ingram is unlikely to play, the Saints offense has far too much firepower to be stopped. With QB Sam Bradford likely to miss a second straight week due to an ankle injury, AJ Feeley will get another start. St. Louis simply doesn’t have enough firepower to keep this game close.

GIANTS (-9.5) over Dolphins
The Giants need to pick up a big victory on Sunday before they begin a brutal 5-week stretch of games. New York has a major letdown game a home a couple of weeks ago against a bad Seattle team. I can’t see the Giants having another home letdown in a matchup against arguably the worst team in the entire NFL. Tony Sparano knows he’s already out of a job and the Dolphins are simply doing their best to ensure the number one overall pick in April’s draft. I think the Giants win convincingly at home on Sunday.

TITANS (-9) over Colts
Will this finally be the week that RB Chris Johnson justifies his big new contract? Johnson has been arguably the biggest disappointment in the entire NFL through the first two months of the season. He has just one touchdown on the season and has yet to rush for over 100 yards in a game. Even though the Titans offense has been porous since coming off of the bye two weeks ago, they should have some success against Indianapolis. One would hope that the Colts played inspired football coming off of an embarrassing 55-point loss, but I simply don’t think they will keep this game within single digits on the road.

PANTHERS (-3.5) over Vikings
It’s a battle of rookie quarterbacks as Cam Newton leads the Panthers into a home matchup against Christian Ponder and the Vikings. The Panthers offense should have a lot of success against a very poor Vikings secondary. Although Ponder played very well in his debut against the Packers, I think he might struggle in his first road start. I’ll go with the Panthers at home in this matchup.

RAVENS (-13) over Cardinals
Baltimore returns home after one of the worst offensive performances in franchise history. The Ravens will look to take out their frustration and make a statement against a bad Arizona defense. The Cardinals are traveling across the country for an early game and QB Kevin Kolb will likely struggle against the aggressive Baltimore defense. Even though they are giving up nearly two touchdowns, I like the Ravens in this matchup.

BILLS (-6) over Redskins
Buffalo plays much better at home and I simply don’t trust QB John Beck to keep this game close for the Redskins. Even though the Bills defense gives up a lot of points, I think Buffalo can win a shootout if need be, and I expect the Bills offense to have a big game coming off of the bye and on the heels of QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s new contract extension.

Jaguars (+9.5) over TEXANS
Jacksonville has quietly been playing some of the best defense in the entire NFL this season. Even with the firepower that Houston has on offense they have not been incredibly impressive in the way they’ve played the past several weeks. Even though I expect Houston to win this game at home, if Jacksonville controls the time of possession and their defense plays the way they have over the past month, I think they will cover the spread.

Lions (-3) over BRONCOS
If QB Tim Tebow and the Broncos are playing against nearly any other team besides the Miami Dolphins last weekend, there is now way they come back and win that game. The Broncos offense was an absolute mess last week. Now that they are going up against a legitimate defense in Detroit, I don’t expect it to be any better. If the Lions want to prove they are a legitimate playoff team, they need to go on the road and win this game. As long as Matthew Stafford plays I think Detroit will win in convincing fashion.

Bengals (-3) over SEAHAWKS
The Seahawks have any incredibly strong home-field advantage. Additionally I am yet to be sold on Andy Dalton and the Bengals going on the road across the country to win in Seattle without RB Cedric Benson. Even though most things are pointing towards the Seahawks in this matchup, I simply have a gut feeling that the Bengals will win and cover the spread. I’d stay away from this matchup but if I have to pick I’ll reluctantly go with Cincinnati.

Patriots (-3) over STEELERS
When I was looking at this matchup I kept coming back to the fact that Pittsburgh hasn’t beaten a good team yet this season. When the Steelers matchup against quality opponents they have been overmatched. Until they prove they can beat an elite squad, I simply can’t pick them. Even at home, I have questions about their ability to beat Tom Brady and the Patriots. The Steelers offense should have success moving the ball against New England’s defense but will it be enough to win the game?

49ERS (-9) over Browns
San Francisco’s defense and special teams are significantly better than Cleveland. The 49ers should have success stopping Colt McCoy and the Browns offense and will likely win the special teams battle by a significant margin. If Alex Smith continues to manage the game the way he has over the first seven weeks of the season, the 49ers will be looking at an extremely impressive 6-1 start under Jim Harbaugh.

Cowboys (+3.5) over EAGLES
The Eagles need to win this game to have a chance to get back into the NFC East race. A victory could catapult the Eagles into a great position in the division after a horrific start to the 2011 season. That being said, Philadelphia has yet to show any indication that they are ready to take that next step. Even in their victory against Washington two weeks ago, the Eagles offense was shut out in the second half and relied on four Rex Grossman interceptions. I think the Cowboys defense will get a lot of pressure on Michael Vick and have success against the Eagles rushing attack. If the Eagles offensive line gives Vick enough time to throw the ball down the field, Philadelphia will have success. However, if Vick is under pressure all evening and the Eagles LB corps is exposed, it could be a long night for the Birds.

CHARGERS (-4) over Chiefs
Phillip Rivers has been under scrutiny all week for his lackluster play this season. I have a feeling that the Chargers offense responds in a big way on Monday Night against Kansas City. The Chiefs are coming off of an outstanding defensive performance but it needs to be kept in perspective. The Chargers are the better team and should come out with a decisive victory on Monday night.