Last Week: 7-8-1
Season: 22-23-3
After a strong Week 2 performance I bounced back with a below average Week 3. With several interesting games on tap I will look to come up big during the Week 4 matchups and move my record above .500 on the season for good. As always, home teams in CAPITALS.
Lions (-2.5) over COWBOYS
I can’t believe I’m picking the Detroit Lions to win on the road and move to 4-0 on the season. Detroit has a very strong pass defense and they should have success running the football against the Cowboys. Even though Dallas is 3-1 both against the spread and straight up against the Lions in their last four meetings, this is a different Detroit team. I’d stay away from this game but if I have to pick I’d take Detroit.
Saints (-7.5) over JAGUARS
The Saints offense has been absolutely explosive on the young season. Even though they are travelling outside of the dome, that won’t make a difference in their Week 4 matchup in Jacksonville. Rookie QB Blaine Gabbart is making his second NFL start and New Orleans’ defensive coordinator Gregg Williams will bring a lot of pressure to try and rattle the young QB. The Saints should roll in this matchup.
EAGLES (-9.5) over 49ers
The Eagles are coming off of an incredibly disappointing performance in their home opener against the New York Giants. Coming into this game with a 1-2 record, Philadelphia has a lot to prove on the young season. The Eagles simply can’t afford to fall to 1-3. It’s the dreaded early game for a west coast team after flying across the country. Even with the Eagles injury concerns to QB Michael Vick and WR Jeremy Maclin, I still expect them to win by double digits.
RAMS (+2.5) over Redskins
St. Louis has allowed an NFL worst 174.3 rushing yards per game through three weeks. After coming off of a season with so much promise, the Rams have gotten off to a terrible 0-3 start in 2011. Heading into their bye week, St. Louis simply needs a victory. The Redskins are the better team at this point in the season but after being embarrassed at home last week, I want to see if St. Louis shows some pride and bounces back with a strong Week 4 performance.
Titans (-1) over BROWNS
I said it last week and I will say it again. Will this be the week that Chris Johnson finally breaks out of his slump? Johnson has been well below average throughout the first three weeks of the regular season and has accumulated just 98 rushing yards total on the season. Things won’t get any easier for the running back with WR Kenny Britt out for the season due to a torn ACL. Still, I believe with Matt Hasselbeck under center that the Titans are slightly underrated and they could pick up a nice road victory this week in Cleveland.
Bills (-3) over BENGALS
This matchup screams “CLASSIC LETDOWN GAME!” Buffalo is coming off of an incredibly impressive home victory against the New England Patriots. It was their first win over the Pats in their last 15 match-ups. Coming off of the jubilation of that win, the 3-0 Bills travel on the road to take on the Bengals. Conventional wisdom would predict a letdown for Buffalo. However I still feel that even though they will have a letdown this week, they’ll still be able to do enough to win by a field goal on the road.
Vikings (-3) over CHIEFS
The Vikings have blown three double-digit second half leads including a 20-point lead against Detroit at home last week. Donovan McNabb will lead the 0-3 Vikings to Arrowhead Stadium to take on the winless Chiefs. Kansas City is decimated by injury on the season and should seriously be considering trying to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. I wouldn’t bet on this game but if I have to make a pick, I’ll say that McNabb gets his first win as a Viking in an ugly contest.
BEARS (-6.5) over Panthers
Cam Newton has been absolutely dynamic on the young season. His stats took a hit during last week’s matchup against the Jaguars but he picked up his first NFL win. Sunday will be a major test for the young QB against Brian Urlacher and the Bears defense. Carolina’s running game needs to improve significantly for them to have a chance in this game. I have the Bears winning at home by at least a touchdown.
Steelers (+3.5) over TEXANS
I know that the trendy pick is to take the explosive Texans in this matchup. Pittsburgh has not been very impressive on the young season. They are coming off of an ugly 23-20 win against Kerry Collins, Curtis Painter, and the rest of the lowly Colts. Even though the game is in Houston, I have a feeling that the Steelers “aging” defense steps up in a big way. If Ben Roethlisburger is able to limit his turnovers, Pittsburgh should keep this game close.
Falcons (-5) over SEAHAWKS
Atlanta notoriously plays poorly at Qwest Field in Seattle. That being said, the Seahawks are one of the worst teams in the entire NFL. With Seattle coming off a victory over Arizona and the Falcons coming off of a tough loss in Tampa Bay, Atlanta needs to go on the road and win this game. I think they do so by at least a touchdown.
Giants (-1.5) over CARDINALS
This is another game that I would stay away from. I also feel that I am picking way too many road teams this week but I think New York ends up pulling out this contest. The pass rush for both teams will be key in this game. Arizona’s secondary is downright abysmal and if Kevin Kolb is forced to make some mistakes, I think New York will pull out the road victory.
Chargers (-7) over DOLPHINS
San Diego notoriously starts the season very slowly in September. The good news for Chargers fans is that the calendar has finally turned to October. Miami is desperate for a win but after last week, I am expecting another letdown for the Dolphins. I think San Diego wins big on the road.
PACKERS (-12) over Broncos
Aaron Rodgers and the Packers offense is already in midseason form and should have a field day against the Broncos defense. Denver simply doesn’t have the firepower to keep up in Lambeau Field. The Pack roll big in this matchup.
Patriots (-6.5) over RAIDERS
Oakland is significantly improved from past seasons and while RB Darren McFadden should have a big game against the Patriots suspect defense, I simply can’t see Tom Brady and the Pats losing this game. The Patriots lost in embarrassing fashion last week in Buffalo and will look to take out their frustration on the Raiders. I think the Pats will win on the road by double digits.
RAVENS (-4) over Jets
This should be a great, physical matchup on Sunday night football. Even though the Jets are coming off of a loss to Oakland last week and Rex Ryan has an obvious history with the Baltimore organization, I still expect the Ravens to win this game. I might try and buy a point to hedge my bet because I could easily see this matchup coming down to a field goal. That being said, I roll with the Ravens on Sunday night.
BUCCANEERS (-10) over Colts
Curtis Painter on the road against the Tampa Bay defense. Enough said. Josh Freeman should have a nice game on Monday Night Football as Tampa Bay rolls to a big home victory.
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