Now that football season has ended and March Madness is weeks away I’ve decided to give you a weekly forecast of all the big games each weekend. Now that we’re in the thick of conference play, teams are fighting for bids to the Big Dance. Most teams have about ten games left on their schedule. How they fare during this stretch is a major element the NCAA tournament selection committee considers when deciding at-large bids. This weekend features an assortment of big matchups across the country. Without further ado, let’s get into the match-ups:
Saturday, February 11
#1 Kentucky (24-1, 10-0 SEC) vs. Vanderbilt (17-7, 6-3)- 9:00 PM EST on ESPN
Big Blue has looked sensational this year. They easily have the best starting five in the nation including the nation’s most imposing defender in Anthony Davis. A buzzer beating three by Indiana’s Christian Watford remains Kentucky’s only dimple on a spectacular season. They have a realistic shot at running the table in the SEC, something the Wildcats have done in the past (1996, 2003). However, Vanderbilt presents Kentucky’s toughest remaining road test. Memorial Gymnasium presents a major house of horrors for opposing teams. The Commodores play an outside-in style of play, providing a major cause of inconsistency, but their offense can heat up at any time. But with Anthony Davis’ presence in the middle, Kentucky’s guards can aggressive challenge Vandy’s shooters. I see Vandy storming out of the gate, but Kentucky has too much size and will ultimately prevail. Prediction: Kentucky 79, Vanderbilt 70.
Connecticut (15-8, 5-6 Big East) vs. #2 Syracuse (24-1, 11-1)- 1:00 PM EST on CBS
This is a match-up of two teams going in opposite directions. Syracause is coming off a scrappy win against rival Georgetown in overtime, while UConn looked lost in a 21-point defeat at Louisville. The Orange has answered every challenge it’s faced this season, and they still manage to improve each week. My only concern is their half-court offense and the zone’s vulnerability on the glass (Georgetown out-rebounded them 48-30). However, UConn’s season is spiraling out of control. While the Huskies have elite talent (two future NBA lottery picks), they lack leadership on the floor. They have struggled to play solid basketball for 40 minutes in most of their conference games. Syracuse’s zone will present major issues, this one won’t be close. Prediction: Syracuse 80, UConn 65.
#13 Michigan State (19-5, 8-3 Big Ten) vs. #3 Ohio State (21-3, 9-2)- 6:00 PM EST on ESPN
The two favorites to win the Big Ten clash in Columbus in the first of a pair of match-ups. Ohio State’s success depends largely upon their big three of Jared Sullinger, Aaron Craft, and lone senior William Buford. Buford broke out of a mid-season slump with a career-high 29 points in a win over Purdue on Tuesday. Michigan State boasts a strong front line of Draymond Green, Derrick Nix, Adreian Payne who account for about half the team’s rebounds. Saturday should provide an excellent battle of the boards, but the game will come down to the point guards Keith Appling has done a good point handling the Spartan’s offense but still has not made the full transition to point guard. While Aaron Kraft is one of the game’s great facilitators. It will be close, but the Buckeyes will defend their home floor. Prediction: Ohio State 72, Michigan 67.
#6 Baylor (21-3, 8-3 Big 12) vs. #5 Missouri (22-2, 9-2)- 1:30 PM EST on ESPN3
Baylor is tough team to gauge. They have a great record, elite talent, and an explosive offensive. Yet they looked awful in both of their games against Kansas, losing by 18 and 14 points. Even with all the athletes Baylor has, they exclusively play zone which plays right into Missouri’s hands. Their four-guard lineup will stretch the zone in the same way the Tigers did in their 89-88 win in Waco. If the Bears can get more consistent production of out Perry Jones III and company, they can make a deep run in March. Until then, Baylor’s struggles against elite teams will continue. Prediction: Missouri 86, Baylor 74.
#20 Virginia (19-4, 6-3 ACC) vs. #4 North Carolina (20-4, 7-2)- 1:00 PM EST on ESPN3
Chapel Hill is still feeling the aftershock of Austin’s Rivers’ dagger on Wednesday night. The Heels had the game won, but couldn’t finish off Duke when they had the chance. Now they’ll try to bounce back against a scrappy Virginia team that can take the air out of Carolina’s up-tempo offense. Tyler Zeller and John Henson should have their way in the paint (Virginia is last in the ACC in blocks) I see a slow half-court game, but the Tar Heel big men get it done. Prediction: North Carolina 68, Virginia 63.
Maryland (14-9, 4-5 ACC) vs. #10 Duke (20-4, 7-2)- 4:00 PM EST on ESPN
Give Duke credit, North Carolina had them dead to rights on Wednesday and they gutted out a major road win. Because they’re coming off an emotional high from Wednesday, I’m Putting Duke on UPSET ALERT. Remember, the first match-up between these two was a lot closer than the 74-61 score indicated. Maryland made it a game for 28 minutes until Duke pulled away late. Also keep in mind that the Blue Devils are dead last in the ACC in field goal percentage defense (43%). Mason Plumlee will be the key in this game. He dominated the Terps last month with 23 points and 12 rebounds. If he’s held in check, Duke becomes one dimensional on offense. If you can force them to settle for jump shots, you can beat Duke. The Terps will keep this interesting, but Duke ekes this one out. Prediction: Duke 68, Maryland 65.
#14 San Diego State (20-3, 6-1 Mountain West) vs. #15 UNLV (21-4, 5-2)- 4:00 PM EST
GAME OF THE WEEK: This is a grudge match from an exciting game a month ago between these two teams. San Diego State’s Jamal Franklin appeared to suffer a serious ankle injury before hitting the game-winning layup with 10 seconds left. So UNLV will be out for blood. Both teams have excellent shooters: Franklin and Chase Tapley for the Aztecs, Oscar Bellfield and Chace Stanback for the Rebels. Since both teams shoot a lot from outside, the better permimter defense and rebounding team survives this must-see game. Look out for UNLV forward Mike Moser (14 PPG, 11 RPG) to be a major factor. Prediction: UNLV 64, San Diego State 62
Wichita State (21-4, 12-2 MVC) vs. #16 Creighton (21-4, 11-3)- 5:00 PM EST on ESPN2
After rolling off 11 straight victories in Missouri Valley play, Creighton has dropped two straight for the first time all year. They have a Naismith finalist in Doug McDermott and are an excellent offensive team, but the Blue Jays struggle mightily on defense (119th in the county in defensive efficiency). While this is a home game for Creighton, Wichita State has been a road warrior this season (7-1 in true road games). McDermott will get his point, but the Shockers will get it done on defense. Prediction: Wichita State 63, Creighton 60.
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