Special Contributor // Adam Piepgrass
Lions, Packers, and Bills…oh my!?!?
Well, after three weeks of NFL action, there are three undefeated teams (I’m assuming Redskins lose tonight). Out of the three, I’ve got some interesting facts that will show which 3-0 is more telling of the team’s actual talent and future ability to reach the Super Bowl.
First, the Lions. Now statistics can’t lie, but they can be misleading. The Lions are the perfect example of this. Detroit’s offense is fourth in the NFL in scoring (37 points per game) and with a receiver like Calvin Johnson you can understand how they are also fourth in the league in passing yards per game.
This is probably not a surprise to a lot of people, but the defense is surprising.
Detroit’s defense ranks third in scoring and fourth in pass yards allowed. And that kind of defense can’t be more important than in the current pass happy NFL. Sounds good right? A Top 5 offense paired with a Top 5 defense made me ready to crown them the champs.
Then I dug a little further.
This one stat puts the rest of these rankings in true perspective: their wins are against opponents that are a combined 2-7. That is two 0-3 teams (Vikings and Chiefs) and one 2-1 team (Buccaneers). Doesn’t make your fourth-ranked offense and third-ranked defense feel so good does it? Beating teams – scoring 37 pointer per game – isn’t as impressive when it’s against the oft-sucky Chiefs and the “Crabby-McNabby” Vikings.
That’s why the big picture is always important, not just one or two statistics.
Next, the Packers. They are fifth in offensive scoring, first in rush yards allowed per game, and second in special teams kick-off yards per return. Looks like an all-around champion. Smells like one. No complaints here.
But, let’s look at the schedule. the Packers’ opponents have a combined record of 4-5. Two wins against 1-2 teams (Panthers and Bears) and one win against a 2-1 team (Saints). There is much to be desired by this schedule. A win against a much improved but still-bottom-dweller-of-the-league Carolina isn’t too impressive. Especially since it was close all game. And beating the Bears in Chicago is always impressive, no mater the team – even though the Bears own the league-high in sacks allowed.
The Pack look good.
But not as good as…you guessed it the Buffalo Bills.
Oh, the Bills. Their offense is first in scoring in the NFL. They are also, surprisingly, ranked fourth in rushing yards per game. And they are first in turnover differential.
Remind you of the Saints two years ago when they went 13-0 on their way to the Super Bowl? The Saints had two wins after trailing a combined 42-13 at half time.
Now, the Bills defense isn’t as noteworthy as the two previous teams but I rank them higher because of their schedule. Okay, so the Bills opponents combined record is only 4-5, yes, I know that is the same as the Packers but hang tight.
Two of the wins have come against 2-1 teams (Raiders and Patriots) and one win against 0-3 team (Chiefs).
And, I know the Bills’ defense isn’t looking good, but they played the NFL’s second-ranked passing offense (Patriots) and the sixth-ranked scoring attack (Raiders). And it’s quality that trumped quantity. The quality of the 2-1 teams is what really separates them from the Lions and Packers. We all know the Patriots are good, but you have to respect Oakland. Especially since Oakland just ran all over the NY Jets (also 2-1).
So the Bills’ 4-5 opponent record is ruined by one bad team. If you take out the worst team faced by the three undefeated teams (Chiefs twice and Panthers) here are the combined opponent records:
Lions: 2-4
Packers: 3-3
Bills: 4-2
At this point, their 3-0 is not only more surprising but more impressive. So jump on the Wagon and Circle it with the others, the 2011 Bills are 3-0 and are the best team in the NFL.
For now anyway…
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