LeBron James is taking his talents somewhere again, but this time it’s to the NBA Finals.
It may look like a rematch of the 2006 NBA Finals, where the Dallas Mavericks lost a heart-breaker to the Miami Heat after winning the first two games at home, but it’s decidedly different. This time around the Miami Heat have not one, but three mega-stars and are just four wins away from making good on their July promise to bring a championship to Miami under this new league of superstars which includes LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh.
The Dallas Mavericks, on the other hand, were certainly not the team most thought would be in these Finals representing the west. That doesn’t, however, mean they didn’t earn it. Dirk Nowitzki and his experienced team of sharp-shooters and ball-movers first knocked off an underrated Portland team, then swept their way through the defending champion Lakers, and finished it off with a six-game win over the young and talented Oklahoma City Thunder.
It is a match up most popularly discussed as good vs. evil. The benevolent king of Dallas, Dirk Nowitzki, pitted against the villainous LeBron James, who ruthlessly abandoned his family in Cleveland, OH to form an evil triumvirate of superstars in Miami, FL whose powers combined could destroy any small-market in their path.
Too much? Maybe, but even so, that’s about a pitch-perfect representation of the zeitgeist’s opinion of this series. It can be very difficult, in fact, to find a Miami Heat fan outside of Dallas. It is not difficult, however, to find people who actively dislike them. After all, villains may not be the recipients of much positive tweeting or Facebook-liking, but they sure do haul in the t.v. ratings.
Beyond such narrative generalizations as these, what can we expect in these NBA Finals? For one, the Miami Heat will once again be much smaller than their opponent. Dallas’ front court consists of Tyson Chandler and Dirk Nowitzki, both listed at 7’1″. Miami on the other hand, is starting someone at center, in Joel Anthony, who measures at just 6’9″, with Chris Bosh at the four standing at 6’11”.
Maybe most interesting to analyze is how these defenses will fare against one another. The Dallas Mavericks boast the NBA’s best, and most used, zone defense. What this means for Miami is they are, potentially, going to have a more difficult time than they are used to getting points in the paint. Zone defenses are very effective at shutting down inside scoring, which includes Miami’s frequent dribble-drive attacks. So the zone should force the Heat out more to the perimeter where they will have to be effective to open up any sort of game in the paint. If the Heat can get Mike Miller and Mike Bibby going from beyond the arc, you might see Rick Carlisle (Dallas Head Coach) switch back to man-to-man more frequently, which hypothetically gives the Heat the advantage with their one-on-one speed and quickness advantage.
The Heat on the other hand, almost always play man-to-man and attempt to bottle you up with their defenders “on an island” given their strong individual skills. This generally poses a problem for Dallas as they have the decided quickness disadvantage. However, the Heat don’t have anyone that can, at least on paper, guard Dirk Nowitzki. We can speculate that LeBron James will end up on him a lot of the time with a huge height disadvantage. James is, however, a stellar defender, and we’ll have to wait and see how that match up plays out.
The Heat defense also tends to play a physical man-to-man scheme that gravitates towards the middle and often leaves the perimeter open. Miami Head Coach Eric Spoelstra has said publicly that he doesn’t intend to change this strategy so late in the season for one opponent, and that could really create some openings for Dallas who is an extremely skilled team from beyond the arc. Dallas has weapons by the bunches from long-range including Nowitzki, Jason Terry, Jason Kidd, Peja Stojakovic, and J.J. Barea.
The key to this series for Dallas is containing the big three of James, Wade, and Bosh with their zone and forcing the Heat to find other ways to score. All of this, while capitalizing on what they hope will be an ample amount of opportunities for 3-pointers on the offensive end.
For the Heat, it’s all about containing Dirk Nowitzki. The Heat have depended heavily on their defense in these playoffs and winning low-scoring games. That’s not going to work if they don’t contain Dirk Nowitzki, who few would argue has been the MVP of these playoffs thus far.
Maybe it is a battle of good vs. evil, maybe it’s not — but however you spin it, these two teams are facing their biggest challenge of the season beginning tonight at 9pm in Miami.
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