This Week: 2-1
Season: 13-5
After a 2-1 Thanksgiving Day I’m back with the remainder of my Week 12 picks. I hope everyone had an outstanding holiday with family and friends and enjoy a lazy Sunday afternoon of watching football. Home teams in capitals.
Vikings (-1.5) over REDSKINS
Leslie Frazier will make his debut as the Minnesota Vikings interim head coach. A underachieving preseason Super Bowl favorite fires their head coach in the middle of the season and responds with an inspired effort? This script sounds familiar…
Steelers (-7) over BILLS
TRAP GAME! Everything about this matchup screams that it is a trap game for the Steelers. Coming off a home win against the Raiders and heading into Baltimore on Sunday night next week, it would be easy for the Steelers to overlook the Bills. However, coming off a 49 point victory against the Bengals, Buffalo did just enough to get, and keep Pittsburgh’s attention.
TEXANS (-6) over Titans
Houston has the 32nd ranked pass defense in the NFL and has lost two straight games in heartbreaking fashion. The cure for such a remedy? 3rd string QB Rusty Smith. The 6th round rookie out of Florida Atlantic will make his first career start Sunday afternoon in Houston. Even with such a bad defense, I can’t see the Texans losing at home to a QB making his first start.
GIANTS (-7) over Jaguars
The Giants have no WRs. The Jaguars have no offensive line. Advantage? Giants. Jacksonville will be without both of their starting offensive tackles after LT Eugene Monroe failed a baseline test for a concussion on Friday. The Jaguars depleted offensive line will be a major issue against one of the top pass rushing defenses in the league. The Giants are coming off two straight divisional losses and are in need of a victory.
BROWNS (-9.5) over Panthers
QB Jake Delhomme will start for the first time since Week 1 in this matchup against his former team. I would normally stay away from this matchup but if I have to pick it, I’ll go with Cleveland. The Browns have been playing much better football the past several weeks with Colt McCoy under center. It will be interesting to see how they respond to the QB change but the bottom line is Carolina is the worst offense in the NFL. The Panthers are starting their 4th string QB (Brian St. Pierre) and 4th string RB (Mike Goodson) and have lost four straight games by an average margin of over 20 points.
Packers (+1.5) over FALCONS
Matt Ryan is 18-1 at the Georgia Dome as the starting QB of the Atlanta Falcons. Ryan and the rest of his team will get a major test at home this weekend against the Green Bay Packers. Both of these teams come into this matchup riding 4 game winning streaks and looking to make a statement as the cream of the crop in the NFC. The Packers have allowed a combined 10 points in their last 3 games and QB Aaron Rodgers should have success through the air against the Falcons secondary. Atlanta has the advantage in the running game and this should be a back and forth matchup that could go either way. While the general rule is to not pick against Matt Ryan at home, my gut tells me Green Bay pulls out the victory.
RAIDERS (-2.5) over Dolphins
Oakland and Miami both come into this matchup with 5-5 records and in need of a victory. The Raiders are coming off of a disappointing loss at Pittsburgh last week and the Dolphins have had 10 days to recover from their 16-0 defeat at the hands of the Chicago Bears. Bruce Gradkowski will get the start at QB for Oakland. Injuries have derailed the Dolphins this year and with 3rd string QB Tyler Thigpen getting his 2nd straight start, I look for Oakland to come out victorious and move to 6-5 on the year.
Chiefs (-2.5) over SEAHAWKS
It’s a battle of two 1st place teams as the AFC West leading Kansas City Chiefs travel to Seattle to take on the NFC West leading Seahawks. Pete Carroll’s squad has been incredibly up and down this season. Todd Haley and the Chiefs are in the midst of a tough stretch and have to travel out to the northwest for this matchup. Kansas City is 6-4 on the season but they are 0-4 on the road. Are they due a road win? We’ll find out on Sunday.
Rams (+4) over BRONCOS
The 4-6 Rams are somehow still in the thick of things in the NFC West and a victory on Sunday would be huge in keeping them in the hunt. Josh McDaniel’s squad has been disappointing this year and is coming into this Week 12 matchup off of a short week and 21 point divisional loss. I like rookie QB Sam Bradford in this matchup and expect the Rams not only to cover, but to win outright.
RAVENS (-7.5) over Buccaneers
Last week I said that the Buccaneers needed to win at San Francisco to prove they belong in the playoff discussion in the NFC. Tampa Bay made a statement traveling across the country to beat the 49ers 21-0. The test is much tougher this week as the Bucs head to Baltimore to take on the Ravens. Josh Freeman and Raheem Morris have proven they deserve respect but this young Bucs team is not ready for prime time just yet.
BEARS (+3.5) over Eagles
The Eagles have looked like one of the best teams in the NFL the past three weeks beating the Colts, Redskins, and Giants. However, I’m not a fan of this matchup from Philadelphia’s standpoint. Pro Bowl CB Asante Samuel will miss the game with a left knee sprain which leaves a major void in the secondary for the Eagles. Additionally, the Bears have the #1 ranked defense in the NFL and the Giants showed how to defend the Eagles offense last week with their zero blitz scheme. Philadelphia and Chicago have played odd games the past several years and I expect it to continue on Sunday.
COLTS (-3) over Chargers
San Diego has had Indianapolis’s number for several seasons but I think Peyton Manning and the Colts pick up the victory in this matchup. You should never bet against Peyton Manning in a night game and the Colts are coming off of a tough loss at New England last week. This should be a great matchup and I’ll go with the home team for my pick.
49ers (-1) over CARDINALS
Both of these teams stink so it is easy to go either way. I wouldn’t argue against taking the point with Arizona as the home team but I simply feel that San Francisco is a (slightly) better team. I’d recommend staying away from this Monday night matchup at all costs.
Leave a Reply