Defense wins championships. I know this is groundbreaking news and no one but me has ever thought of it, so let it sink in for a second.
Now reflect on the season thus far for the Oregon State Beavers men’s basketball team. Of the “difficult” teams they have faced, they have managed to hold Stanford, Oregon, Arizona, LSU and Nevada under their average points per game. They have had games with 12 steals (Stanford), games with 27 defensive rebounds (LSU) and games where they have shut down the perimeter, only allowing 17 percent from three-point range (Arizona).
So given “Certis Paribus,” the Beavers should have a good shot at winning the Pac-10 championship, right? Sure. Only one problem, though: this isn’t microeconomics, and all things are not equal. It’s the real world, and a real change could help.
The Beavers basketball team has exhibited good team defense so far this season but have come up short in the W column due to lack of points scored, not lack of a defensive effort. Holding opponents to 68 points per game isn’t the best, but it works. The issue is only averaging 66 points per game. To be blunt, that isn’t very good.
In the Pac-10, team point totals are a little higher: 72 ppg (USC), 75 ppg (UCLA), 79 ppg (Oregon) and 84 ppg (UCLA). Any team that wants to contend better score more than 66 points in a game. Washington State doesn’t count.
Then the debate starts. Who would give the Beavers extra points without damaging the defense? Four more Kyle Jefferses wouldn’t hurt. Outside of that, the Beavers might have to risk money to make money. Coach Jay John might have to risk defense to gain offense – get players in the game who will help the team score more points.
Notice I didn’t say to put in players who score, but players who will help the team score more. As it stands, Josh Tarver is running the point, and Wesley Washington is at the shooting guard. Both are good defenders but don’t exactly match up with the words “outside shot.” Both Tarver and Washington are more slashers and drivers, getting most of their points from driving to the hoop.
The only problem is that the Beavers already have a strong inside presence with Jeffers, Sasa Cuic and Marcel Jones. Slashing and driving into a lane with three defenders isn’t the best way to score points, which is reflected by the Beavers’ points per game and win total this season.
The strong inside presence can lead to one good thing – an open perimeter. Insert Angelo Tsagarakis and Jack McGillis, two good outside shooters.
My idea? Put Tsagarakis at the point and McGillis at the shooting guard. Sounds crazy, doesn’t it? Stay with me here.
Think about this: in the last four games, Josh Tarver has looked timid when offered a shot and isn’t exactly cleaning house when taking the opportunity. He is a combined 7-29 shooting and averages just 5.5 ppg. The big stat, though, is that he has an assist-to-turnover ratio of 1.2 to 1 this season. Tsagarakis, in that same span, is 5-14 shooting with 14 points, which is 3.5 ppg, and his season assist-to-turnover ratio is 1.8 to 1 – tied for the highest on the team. So the idea’s not crazy – well, at least not totally crazy.
Washington has been playing well but is not an outside shooter. Washington is 8-16, which is respectable, with 21 points, which is 5.2 ppg while playing 26.5 minutes in those games. McGillis is 9-21 and 5-10 from beyond the arc. On the season, McGillis averages 1.24 points per shot, second most on the team behind Jeffers.
This switch in personnel would help boost the number of points scored per game by opening up the court. As it stands, teams don’t respect Tarver and Washington from the outside. The change would force defenders to respect the outside shot, which would open up the inside of the court.
That would allow the Beaver big men more room to work with and grab more open shots. And if teams fail to respect the outside shot, McGillis has shown range and ability, and Tsagarakis is famous for shooting from the “B” in “Beavers” at center court – and making it.
Mid-season this may sound horribly unfeasible, ridiculous and extreme, but if you look at the remainder of the schedule for the Beavers – now 1-6 in the Pac-10 – why not try it? Tsagarakis has past experience at the point, and McGillis has shown in the past two weeks that he can play well.
Even though defense wins championships, offense wins games, and until the Beavers win games, they will not have any shot at any championship. Besides, it doesn’t take a genius to know that it’s tough to win games if you don’t score more points than the opposition.
Leave a Reply